Mistaken belief that the probability of a random event in the short run will match its probability in the long run.
The larger the sample size, the more representative a sample will be of the population from which it was chosen Eg: larger hospital: 45 babies are born each day; smaller hospital, 15 babies. Over a 1-year period, 50% boy, but exact percentage varied daily. Which hospital recorded more days on ...
Judging the probability that something belongs to a category based on how well it represents or matches that category. • Based on similarity and prototypicality • Judgment fails to consider base rate: The relative proportions of different categories in the population.
Occur when a correlation between two events appears to exist, but in reality there is no correlation or it’s much weaker than it is assumed to be.
Judging the frequency or probability of events based on their availability in memory. Events that are remembered more easily are judged as being more frequent or probable than events that are remembered less easily.
Improved problem-solving performance after a delay during which the problem is temporarily set aside.
Innovation, creating novel ideas, making new connections between existing ideas. Associated with divergent rather than convergent thinking.
A form of pragmatic reasoning that states that if a person satisfies condition A, then they have permission to carry out action B.
