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projection

A computation of how the stock and fishery will behave in the future. Projections are made to address "what-if" questions of relevance to management. Short-term (1-4 years) projections are typically used in support of decision-making on quotas. Longer term projections become much more uncertain in terms of absolute quantities, because predicted recruitment tends to dominate the results and recruitment itself is very difficult to predict. For this reason, long-term projections are more useful to evaluate overall management strategies than for making detailed decisions.

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